Van Spot Rates Decline, But Higher Rates Expected

Data from Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence for the week ended January 23 shows further decreases in broker-posted spot rates as expected following the holiday surge.

However, a massive winter storm over the weekend, which included not only major precipitation but also extreme cold, is widely expected to drive up spot rates for dry van and, especially, refrigerated equipment.

Shippers often seek out insulated refrigerated vans during extreme cold temperatures to haul typically dry van freight that is susceptible to freezing. A similar storm in mid-January 2024 led to sizable spot rate increases for both van types, even as rates typically would have fallen significantly. Rates then resumed their post-holiday normalization the following week.

Another major winter weather event in mid-February 2021 resulted in much stronger peak spot rate gains and produced rate increases for multiple weeks. However, that event occurred during a period of significant disruptions to trucking capacity and robust consumer spending on goods driven by government stimulus.

Given that trucking capacity clearly is tighter today than it was in January 2024, rate increases at least matching those from a year ago – 6.6 cents for dry van and 12.3 cents for refrigerated – would seem likely. Rate surges closer to the peak in February 2021 – 18.8 cents for dry van and 28.8 cents for refrigerated – would reinforce the notion that trucking capacity is quite tight but not showing up in market dynamics due to weak freight volume.

Slightly weaker load postings week over week, coupled with slightly more truck postings, resulted in a Market Demand Index of 111.9, which is down from the levels in the two prior 2026 weeks but otherwise the strongest since April 2025.